Dear leaders of the free (and reasonable) world,
If there is one thing History has tough us, it is that it is one hell of a chess player. Constantly playing mind games to win the psychological battle and remain one step ahead of us. But as ruthless and superiorly intelligent History is, it is not invincible. History has an Achilles’ heal. History is cocky. It sometimes reveals its strategy too soon and gives a possibility to a mindful, aware and courageous opponent to defeat her.
I will be straight with you, the Western World is in crisis. Crisis you say? Yes, crisis. The second gulf war, the failure to put together a European constitution, the credit crisis of 2008, the Greek crises (plural), the failure of the European union to agreed on a solution to address the migrant crisis, the results of the recent Austrian election, the failure of the Schengen space, the Brexit and Mr Trump’s election can no longer be considered as individual outliers. A populist pattern is clearly emerging.
But the good new is History just got cocky and has revealed its long term strategy. Now we know in which direction she is trying to take us, just like the League of Nations did in the 1930’s. Consequences, of course, will not be the same (History will surprise us no matter what) but the early symptoms of populism and isolationism are undeniably here.
So, good. We have clear symptoms. Shall we try to infer a diagnostic to see if this seasonal runny nose is treatable? Or even better: curable? I will cite one of the most terrible man this earth has ever born: Mao Zedong. No need to get off the topic of this letter and discuss what he did, we all know. But the man did get one thing right: “Religion is the opium of the people”. Make no mistake, this does not mean humans need religion to feel satisfied but rather that we crave and need to hold simple certainties in our hearts to feel safe and comfortable. Religion is just one (effective) way to do this. What are the symptoms telling us? Today’s western world’s religion is populism, nationalism and isolationism. Good, now we know what kind of virus History has been throwing at us during the last 15 years of bio-chess-warfare. Is it serious doc? Yes. It is curable? No, but a life-long treatment will let you to live a very comfortable life with few side effects.
So what is the right attitude in the wake of such news delivered by our trusted general practitioner? It seems History might have won already. Is it too late? Do we do what the French did during WWII: stand paralyzed in fear, as if the events unfolding before us were uncontrollable? Or do we do what the British did during the war of Britain? Stand up even if the outlook is grim, even if there is no outlook at all. Here’s the good piece of news, our good doctor tells us the treatment consists of only one pill of “Never give up. Never give up. Never give up”. A proven drug first patented by Winston Churchill in the 1940s. We need not worry then.
How do we manufacture the pill tough? It is not simple but there is a way. Keep human’s need for simple answers satisfied. Acknowledge this additional and unquantifiable unknown is part of the equation and solve for it in your answers. The populists (History’s strong-arm) are already doing this. This is why they are winning. But reasonable leaders can leverage this basic human instinct of survival as well to steer the Western World in the right direction. And it is quite simple, it all hinges on one axiom: "Let’s be true to our core values: fairness, freedom and respect". We cannot afford to be hypocrites, we are just discrediting ourselves. This is also why the populists are winning.
How does this work in practice? Here are few examples. Kennedy’s speech announcing the America’s next step in its space program, “We choose to (…) do the (...) things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard” served democracy and made the American people feel safe and strong. But this is the past, what do we do today? Why not take a fairer and stronger stance in our relationships with countries who treat women like our societies did during the middle age? (I understand the immediate fiduciary implications but am convinced the “do-nothing” option will come to a greater cost on the long term). Why not agree on a European workforce to secure Schengen’s borders? Why not organize the flow of refugees, help them cross the Mediterranean safely, register them, dispatch them and teach them local cultures to foster their integration? While these issues are central and structural, we should also enact symbolic measures. Europe has the best architectural and cultural legacy of the world. Why do Euro bank notes feature fake monuments which have clearly been chosen by technocrats to be the most agnostic possible? Let’s put a piece of Europe in each European’s hand! Let’s make Europeans proud of themselves and of their legacy.
Who do I hope will read this? The answer is simple, nothing less than the leaders of the free and reasonable world. In particular, the leaders of the European Union and Canada. The North Atlantic entente is indeed one of the best examples of counter-isolationism which has ever been. Mrs Angela Merkel, Mr Justin Trudeau, Mr Alain Juppé – regardless of your current level of responsibilities in the affairs of your respective countries – I am urging you to recognize the need to make your people feel safe by making them feel strong. Steal the populist’s thunder and turn it against them for the benefit of fairness and progress. I am urging you to work publicly together and coordinate in this sense. The stakes are nothing less than the outcome of game of chess we have been playing against History since the Berlin wall fell down. She can be beaten.
I will add one final disclaimer after taking the audacity of lecturing people who are much smarter than I am for two pages. I want to acknowledge the fact that you may disagree with the proposed diagnostic or approach to address the issue (I will remain firm on the symptoms). If such is the case, then I hope you will seek and find even better ways to keep the boat on the right course.
Most sincerely,
Raphael Vannson
Who am I?
My name is Raphael Vannson. I was born near Reims in France in 1981. I am one of those “educated-white-males” as I hold 2 Masters degrees in Engineering (one from a French institution, the other one from an American institution). I have worked for Accenture for 4 years in France and 4 years in the US (I have moved to California six years ago). I now work for a smaller Big Data consulting company as an Engineer. My political views are right of the left or left of the right, whichever makes sense.
