Dear Rutgers fans,
First off, let me say I'm sorry. I never intended to be offensive or rude when I posted the observation on my Twitter page. Because it's factual, I still don't quite understand where all the uproar came from.
"Rutgers will never be a Big Ten contender until it can convince prospects like Rashan Gary to stay home."
The thought came to mind because Gary, a five-star defensive tackle rated by 247Sports the No. 1 overall player in the 2016 class, is visiting Ohio State this weekend. He's also high on Michigan, Penn State and Alabama.
Though Gary plays at Paramus (N.J.) Catholic, Rutgers, the home state school, is likely not going to have a chance to make it deep in his recruitment, let alone actually sign him.
Which got me thinking about what it takes to be a winner in this conference, to compete with Urban Meyer and Ohio State, James Franklin and Penn State, Jim Harbaugh and Michigan and Mark Dantonio and Michigan State.
And Kyle Flood is coming up short. It starts with recruiting, and, frankly put, he's getting blown off his home field. He isn't doing much to stop New Jersey's top talent from fleeing the state to his Big Ten counterparts.
Let's look at the three full classes he's signed at Rutgers:
2013: Signed one of the top 10 players in New Jersey, according to 247Sports. Finished with the No. 50 overall class in the country.
2014: Signed none of top 10 players in New Jersey. Finished with the No. 62 overall class in the country.
2015: Signed none of the top 10 players in New Jersey. Finished with No. 55 overall class in the country.
One of the top 30 players in the last three years? One? ONE?
"They have to get five out of the top 10 if they want to take the next step. And I would say probably 9-to-10 out of the top 20," Mike Farrell, the national recruiting director for Rivals.com, told N.J.com in February. "Set your goals high. They're not close to that right now."
Now by comparison, Penn State signed eight top-10 players in New Jersey during the last three seasons. Ohio State got two. Michigan signed one - the same as Rutgers - but the Wolverines' signee was Jabrill Peppers in 2014, the No. 1 player in the state and one of the best in the country.
How on earth can Rutgers be a real Big Ten contender when the top teams in the conference are cannibalizing - without opposition - the top players in New Jersey?
Look. I know it's not easy for Flood to turn the tide, to be able to overcome big shots like Meyer, Franklin, Harbaugh and Dantonio. I'm not sure who could take over at Rutgers and be successful in completing such a task.
What comes first? The winning or the players? The chicken or the egg, right?
Urban Meyer: A look back at the 2014-15 Ohio State football season
Urban Meyer put a fence around the borders of Ohio. And he's plucking top prospects from New Jersey, which is bad news for Rutgers.
Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer
But if you look at what has made Ohio State so successful is that it locks down its home borders. Michigan and Michigan State get what they can out of Michigan - a far less talented state than New Jersey - and plucks from Ohio and surrounding areas. Penn State has made itself New Jersey's in-state program.
So what's left for Rutgers? Not much. If it can't recruit its home state, how successful is it going to be in recruiting top players from further away?
The Scarlet Knights don't need to sign Gary-like prospects every year, but signing one top-10 in-state players in three years is inexcusable.
Comparing Flood to Meyer or Harbaugh isn't fair. His job, to a certain extent, is filled with complications those coaches don't have to overcome. Flood has to convince guys to turn down traditional powerhouses to stay home, and clearly that's not easy. Maybe impossible. Really, it's hard not to feel bad for him.
But this is reality, and the reality is that Rutgers cannot compete for a conference title when it's getting blown out in recruiting on its own turf. Rutgers isn't only losing in the race for top in-state talent, it's not even competing.
So let me say it again: "Rutgers will never be a Big Ten contender until it can convince prospects like Rashan Gary to stay home."
Sincerely,
Ari
